WG2 – Uncertainty of process and scaling issues

WG Leaders: Rupert Seidl, Koen Kramer

Rationale: WG2 will investigate how the inclusion of different processes, as well as the scale of process description (e.g. leaf vs. tree vs. plot scale) contributes to predictive uncertainty. An important consideration here will be availability of data to match the respective processes, which connects WG2 to WG1 (Milestone W2). A result of this work should be recommendations regarding whether it is better to omit certain processes in modelling if the available data on it are scarce (increased structural uncertainty), or to include it in the model but accept larger parameter uncertainty). Natural disturbances, environmental heterogeneity, or intraspecific variability of phenotypes and genotypes, for instance, are frequently ignored because it is assumed that they average out at larger scales. These heterogeneities, however, could have a strong influence on the climate-sensitivity of forests. WG2 will investigate using simple model experiments when omitting ecosystem processes in models contributes to uncertainty, and at what scales treating such processes as external factors is admissible from an uncertainty point of view. A result of this work could be recommendations for which processes should be considered at which scales to increase the robustness of model-based scenario analyses (Milestone W5). WG2 will also discuss the challenge of including genetic and phenotypic diversity across European tree species distributions into process-based models, and investigate uncertainties that arise from upscaling model results to scales that are relevant to typical stakeholders (Milestone W6). All work will be coordinated with WG3 to explore possible synergies regarding the question of model comparisons and uncertainties. 

Task groups:

TG 4: Mortality modeling (Harald Bugmann)
TG 5: Allocation modeling  (Katharina Merganicova)
TG 6: Modelling forest structure  (Alessio Collalti)
TG 7: Landscape model comparison (Heike Lischke)
TG 8: State-of-the-art forest modeling (Andreas Huth)
TG 9: Forest management modeling (Marek Fabrika)
TG 10: Climate chance and forest disturbance (Rupert Seidl)
TG 11: Genetics / adaptation / intra-specific variation (Koen Kramer)
TG 12: Tree rings & disturbances (Werner Rammer)
TG 20: Seed Masting Modelling (Giorgio Vacchiano)
TG 21: Regeneration modelling (Björn Reineking & Harald Bugmann)


Participation: If you are interested in participating in one of the task groups, please contact the task group coordinators directly. If you are interested in the working group in general, please contact the working group leaders.