TG4 – Mortality modeling

TG Leader: Harald Bugmann

Description: Traditionally, very simple mortality submodels were sufficient in forest growth models because the major mortality agent was the chainsaw. With less intensive management practices becoming more abundant, and abiotic stress becoming more prevalent as a consequence of anthropogenic climatic change, mortality processes need more attention when striving for robust models of forest dynamics. Yet, in several studies it was found that different empirically-based (and thus, in theory equally valid) mortality submodels can lead to drastically different projections of forest dynamics.
The aim of this TG therefore is:

  • (1) review existing approaches for handling natural mortality in models of forest growth and long-term forest dynamics
  • (2) perform a systematic evaluation of the sensitivity of different models to different, empirically-based formulations of tree mortality as embedded in different models of forest growth available within the PROFOUND consortium
  • (3) make recommendations as to the way forward with modeling of tree mortality and how to best incorporate improved mortality submodels in forest growth models.

A first workshop of this TG is foreseen in the context of the Annual Meeting of PROFOUND in fall 2015.
Participation: If you are interested in participating in this task group, please contact the coordinator directly. If you are interested in the working group in general, please contact the WG leaders.