WG4 – Climate change impact modelling and implications for management

WG Leaders: Kristina Blennow, Santi Sabaté

Rationale: WG4 will develop concepts, definitions and requirements for classifying, quantifying and communicating uncertainties in climate change impact modelling with a particular focus on the needs of sustainable forest management. For this purpose, WG4 will seek close contact with policy makers and stakeholders about their requirements (see “outreach activities”) (Milestone W10). It will then provide feedback to WG3 about the specifications needed for methodological development, and collaborate with WG3 on creating protocols for multi-model ensemble projections and consensus estimates under climate change (Milestone W11). WG4 will also coordinate the exchange with the 2ndphase of the ISI-MIP project to ensure the access to state-of-the-art climate data and an integration of the activities of this CA into the broader cross-sectoral ISI-MIP framework. These are the prerequisites to facilitate the – to our knowledge – first large-scale, comprehensive analysis of the predictive uncertainty of forest models that consider both parameter and structural (between-model) uncertainty in their probabilistic impact projections (Milestone W12).

Task groups:

TG 3: Multi-model projection protocol (ISI-MIP2) (Santi Sabaté/ Christopher Reyer)
TG 16: Uncertainty review (Michal Petr)
TG 17: Bridging the gap between stakeholders perspectives (Kristina Blennow)

Participation: If you are interested in participating in one of the task groups, please contact the task group coordinators directly. If you are interested in the working group in general, please contact the working group leaders.